D+12–14
Widest midterm margin since 1974. Final polls said about D+9.
The 2026 midterms, in data
Democrats won the House vote by 12 to 14 points, the widest midterm margin since 1974. Five stories on who moved it, why, where it won seats, and who filled the hall.
House popular vote
House seats
256–60
43 seats flipped to D, 2 to R (CBS, 5 Nov). 218 for a majority.
Senate
54–56
7 R seats flipped (IA, KS, ME, NC, OH, SC, TX). AK and MS still counting.
Turnout
48.8%
122.7m ballots. Second-highest midterm turnout in a century.
Trump approval
37%
Lowest midterm approval for a president since at least 2006.
Ad spending
$11.2bn
A record. Republicans outspent Democrats, $5.18bn to $4.77bn.
In this issue
In this issue
Story 1 · Groups · 2.5DWeight TransferYoung and Hispanic voters moved furthest. The national balance moved mostly because white voters, men and people in their 30s and 40s moved, because there are more of them.
Story 2 · Motive · 2DThe ReceiptVoters handed the president an itemised bill: tariffs, Iran, prices, enforcement. The news covered the items in a different order from the one voters ranked them in.
Story 3 · Seats · 3DThe Blue WaveDemocrats took every Republican seat Trump won by less than ten points, and a few the tide should never have reached. Most of those few were in states that had just redrawn their maps to add Republican seats.
Story 4 · Place · 3DThe BorderlandsTexas swung 26 points in two years and every one of its 254 counties moved the same way. The border moved furthest.
Story 5 · Turnout · 3DWho Won the ConventionAbout six points of the Democrats' margin came from who showed up. The rest came from voters who changed sides or were voting for the first time.
Brantopic
The Receipt, every Friday.
One chart and one sourced finding from politic.design, in your inbox.